Trump's Foreign Policy Playbook Is Working—Just Not How He Planned
A year of scattered wins and genuine chaos reveals something darker than incompetence: a doctrine that thrives on unpredictability
The Trump-Starmer friendship is dead. Not metaphorically dead—actually dead, killed by a single decision about some islands most Americans couldn’t find on a map. The UK shelved the Chagos Islands deal after Trump opposed it, and now Prime Minister Keir Starmer is discovering something that took his predecessor years to learn: sometimes it’s easier to work around Washington than with it.
This matters more than it looks on the surface.
Photo by Markus Winkler / Pexels
When Allies Become Liabilities
Six months ago, the bromance between Trump and Starmer seemed like it might actually stick. Two center-right figures, English-speaking, both eager to reset the transatlantic relationship after the Brexit chaos. The press loved it. The diplomatic corps prepared carefully choreographed photo ops.
Then Trump said no to the Chagos deal, and Starmer didn’t fight. He pivoted. Now, according to reporting on the dynamic, the PM is “getting steadily more comfortable at taking advantage” of the relationship’s deterioration. Translation: Starmer realized he doesn’t need Trump’s blessing for every move.
That’s the real story here. Not that the deal collapsed—territorial agreements get shelved all the time—but that a core Western ally decided the path of least resistance is just to do its own thing and see if Trump notices.
The irony is suffocating. Trump’s whole pitch to Europe was supposed to be: work with me, not around me. Instead, he’s inadvertently teaching allies that working around him is actually the smarter play.
Photo by Anna Keibalo / Pexels
The Iran Situation Is Melting Down in Real Time
Meanwhile, everything’s coming apart in the Middle East, and nobody seems equipped to stop it.
The UK prime minister just returned from a three-day Middle East tour saying the Iran ceasefire is “fragile.” JD Vance is heading to Pakistan to discuss Iran policy with Pakistani officials. China’s apparently shipping missiles to Tehran. The U.S. has some kind of ceasefire in place, but it sounds less like an agreement and more like an armed truce held together by the threat of what comes next.
Here’s what’s genuinely unsettling: we don’t know if Trump’s Iran strategy is working brilliantly or falling apart. The signals are contradictory. Iran lost track of mines it planted in the Strait of Hormuz—which sounds like a win for Trump’s pressure campaign, except it also suggests the Iranian government is either incompetent or so destabilized that it can’t manage basic military operations. Neither scenario is actually comforting.
My read? Trump’s got Iran boxed in, but not contained. There’s a difference. A boxed opponent might do something desperate.
The Supreme Court Timing Bomb
Meanwhile, back in Washington, Samuel Alito is the subject of “intense speculation” about retirement. If the speculation becomes reality, Trump gets his fourth Supreme Court nomination.
I’m genuinely uncertain about this one. The timing would be perfect for Trump—a quick win before his term even really starts. But Alito’s made a habit of surprising people. In 2022, he authored the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and seemingly cemented his legacy. Why retire and become a footnote?
Unless he’s thinking about it differently—not as capping his career, but as ensuring his replacement is ideologically pure. That’s the kind of paranoia that’s become normal in conservative circles.
The Real Pattern Emerging
Step back and something strange becomes visible. Trump’s foreign policy isn’t coherent in the traditional sense—there’s no consistent doctrine you could summarize on a napkin. But it is consistent in one way: it operates on disruption.
The Chagos collapse isn’t a failure; it’s a reminder that alliances have conditions now. The Iran ceasefire isn’t a settlement; it’s a standoff that could crack any week. The UK ditching the OpenAI data center deal because of regulatory uncertainty—that’s not separate from the broader picture, that’s part of it. Uncertainty becomes the water everyone swims in.
China’s supporting Iran. Russia’s running submarines near UK cables. The FAA has to regulate anti-drone lasers because the military and civilian agencies can’t agree on anything. These aren’t separate crises. They’re symptoms of a world where the American security umbrella is open to renegotiation, and everybody’s measuring the gaps.
I think this is intentional, actually. Not in a coordinated, chess-master way. But Trump’s instinct toward unpredictability—toward keeping everyone off-balance—is becoming the default setting of his foreign policy. Allies don’t know what to expect. Adversaries can’t predict responses. Even his own subordinates seem to be working from different playbooks.
The question isn’t whether it’s working. It’s working in the sense that things are happening, agreements are being made or unmade, and Trump is the center of gravity every decision orbits around. The question is whether it produces actual security, or just the appearance of motion while the world becomes incrementally more dangerous.
The Alito Factor Changes Everything
If Alito retires in the next eighteen months, Trump gets to shape the judiciary for another generation. That’s not a foreign policy win—except it is, because a conservative Supreme Court is the bulwark that lets Trump execute his international agenda without legal challenge. That’s leverage he probably doesn’t need but definitely wants.
The timing is the thing I can’t predict. Alito’s 68. He could serve another decade. He could retire next month. The speculation itself is doing work—it’s keeping the right energized, the left frightened, and everyone focused on the courts instead of what’s happening in the Middle East.
What I’m Watching
Iran’s compliance with Trump’s maritime demands by March 2025. If those mines stay lost and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t increase measurably, Trump either escalates or claims victory without substance. The third option—a genuine breakdown—would be the real signal that the ceasefire was never real.
Starmer’s next unilateral move without consulting Washington. The Chagos pivot isn’t the end of UK independence; it’s the beginning. Watch for trade negotiations, defense partnerships, or tech deals that the UK pursues without waiting for Trump approval. That’s the real measure of how broken the alliance actually is.
Whether Alito signals his plans before the 2024 elections end and 2025 begins. A retirement announcement changes everything about how aggressive Trump can be internationally—knowing he’s got the courts locked down for decades. No announcement by March means he’s staying, and Trump loses a crucial strategic asset.
China’s next open move supporting Iran or other U.S. adversaries. If Beijing keeps escalating—not quietly, but visibly—it suggests China’s read on Trump is that the U.S. is too divided domestically to mount a coordinated response. That’s the moment everything accelerates.