The SpaceX IPO Trap and Why You Should Look Elsewhere

The SpaceX IPO is coming. You already know this. Your barber knows this. Your mom’s book club probably has a WhatsApp thread about it.

Here’s what you need to know: the headlines are telling you to look somewhere else entirely.

When the Crowd Gets Excited, Check the Other Door

Everyone wants the shiny thing. SpaceX built rockets that land themselves. Elon Musk named one “Just Read the Instructions.” The narrative writes itself. But here’s what 20 years on the Street teaches you: when the entire financial media complex lines up behind one trade, the better opportunity is usually in the unglamorous corner.

The headlines literally say it: “Tempted To Buy the SpaceX IPO? This Is The Smarter Stock To Buy.” Translation: someone smart already looked at this and decided the answer is no.

What’s actually happening right now is far more interesting. While everyone’s waiting for Starship to go vertical, three separate dynamics are colliding that point to completely different winners.

Dramatic night view of SpaceX facility with fog and lights in Brownsville, Texas. Photo by Jeswin Thomas / Pexels

The Energy Sector Just Got a Bailout Nobody’s Talking About

Oil hit $80+ a barrel this week on Iran war fears. That’s not speculation—that’s real money flowing. BP beat profit expectations. ExxonMobil is sitting on high-quality assets, fully integrated operations, and a dividend that’s actually sustainable because, you know, the world still runs on oil. Not in 2050. Now.

Here’s the thing that kills me about market psychology: everyone spent 2023 convinced energy was dead. “Just transition,” they said. “Stranded assets,” they muttered. Then the moment geopolitical risk spikes—literally one military flare-up—oil majors suddenly look genius again.

My read? This isn’t a flash in the pan. The Iran situation could simmer for months. Even if it doesn’t escalate, the market’s risk premium on energy just got repriced. BP and Exxon trade on cash flow, not hope. They’re profitable today at $70 oil. At $90, they’re printing money.

SpaceX, by contrast, is profitable-ish on government contracts. The IPO will be valued on growth stories and Starlink upside. How do you model that? With guesses.

The Real AI Race Isn’t About ChatGPT

Here’s where it gets weird: the biggest AI opportunity this week isn’t OpenAI or Meta or Google. It’s Nokia.

Read that sentence again. Nokia. The company that died to the iPhone.

An analyst upgrade sent Nokia higher because of “data center buildouts linked to AI workloads” requiring “higher-capacity network spending.” Optical transport. IP routing. Boring infrastructure stuff. The picks and shovels play that actually makes money while everyone else chases the shiny application layer.

And here’s the kicker: people are leaving Google, Meta, and OpenAI to launch AI startups. Former employees raising hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s not a sign of health at the mega-caps. That’s a sign the best talent thinks they can do better elsewhere. You know what that means? The infrastructure providers—the Nokias of the world—win either way. Whether it’s Google’s hardware or some startup’s custom chips, someone has to move that data with low latency and high reliability.

The network isn’t boring. The network is essential. And it doesn’t require you to predict which AI startup becomes the next OpenAI.

Detailed close-up of a newspaper displaying global financial market statistics and country flags. Photo by Markus Spiske / Pexels

Poet Technologies and the Danger of Catching Falling Knives

Poet cratered this week. The headlines ask: is this a buying opportunity?

No. Next question.

Look, I understand the temptation. A stock down 40% can feel like a gift. But here’s what you don’t know from the headlines: why it fell. Was it guidance? Competitive pressure? Technical deterioration? Without that, you’re just guessing at a bounce. That’s not investing. That’s slot machines with better tax treatment.

I’m genuinely uncertain about Poet’s fundamentals. And that’s exactly why I wouldn’t touch it at any price right now. Know what you don’t know.

The Musk v. Altman Trial Is Theater (But Expensive Theater)

The trial started. Nine-person jury. Opening arguments this week. And honestly? This tells you something important about where we actually are in the AI race.

Two of the smartest people in the space are in federal court instead of building. That’s an enormous waste of cognitive bandwidth. But it also signals real tension in how AI money flows going forward. The outcome might actually affect whether founders see OpenAI’s structure as trustworthy or not.

My prediction: this doesn’t move stock prices much in the near term. But if Musk wins, you could see a flood of capital rethinking nonprofit AI structures. That’s a governance story with real downstream effects on how AI companies get funded.

The Earnings Expectations Game Is Running Hot

S&P 500 companies are plowing through “another quarter of double-digit growth.” That’s what the headlines say. And people are optimistic.

Here’s my contrarian take: that’s bad news. Optimism at double-digit earnings growth usually means valuations have gotten ahead of reality. When the bar is set that high, the only surprise left is disappointment. We’ve seen this movie before. 2017. Late 2021. It doesn’t end with stocks going higher.

I’m not calling a crash. But I am saying the risk/reward of chasing hot stocks just got worse, and the risk/reward of patient, cash-flowing businesses just got better.

What Actually Matters Right Now

The central bank in Japan is keeping rates steady but raising inflation forecasts because of (checks notes) the Iran war. That’s global monetary tightening without aggressive tightening. Stagflationary pressure building quietly.

The Secret Service had a security breach at a major DC event. That’s not stock-market material, but it’s a reminder that unexpected disruptions happen. Which means hedging isn’t paranoid. It’s professional.

The headlines are telling you something coherent if you squint. The obvious trade (SpaceX IPO) is probably a trap. The boring trades (energy on geopolitical risk, infrastructure on AI capex) are probably the real money. And the flashy stories (AI startups, mega-cap consolidation, Musk courtroom drama) are distracting you from noticing it.