Starmer's Week From Hell: When Everything Goes Wrong at Once

---

Keir Starmer is having the kind of week that makes you question every decision you’ve made since getting elected. A vote looms over vetting claims about Peter Mandelson. A bin strike in Birmingham isn’t ending fast enough. His coalition partners are publicly feuding. And while all this burns at home, King Charles is in Washington doing the whole state visit thing, reminding everyone what actual gravitas looks like.

The timing here is almost cruel.

Photo by Sergey Meshkov / Pexels

The Mandelson Mess Nobody Asked For

Let’s start with the Mandelson thing because it’s genuinely bizarre. No 10 is calling the Conservative demand for a vote on an inquiry into vetting claims “a desperate political stunt.” Which, fine—that’s what you say when the other side asks for something you don’t want to give them. But here’s what’s sticky: the Tories are forcing a vote. Starmer’s government has to either hold an inquiry (which means admitting something went wrong) or refuse (which looks like covering something up).

This is political hostage-taking dressed up as parliamentary procedure. And it’s working because there’s actual smoke here. Mandelson is back in government after years in the wilderness. Did the vetting happen? Was it thorough? Should we care? The fact that the government’s response is “this is a stunt” rather than “here’s exactly what we did” tells you they’re not thrilled with the optics.

My read: Starmer didn’t think this through when he brought Mandelson back. He got a heavyweight advisor and accepted some political theater would follow. He’s calculating that the inquiry vote becomes a one-day story and dies. I think he’s right, but it’s still a self-inflicted wound.

The Birmingham Bin Strike Shows Everything Wrong With Labor Management

Then there’s Birmingham. Striking workers and the council are supposedly close to a deal. A new offer is on the table. But opposition parties are already screaming that it’s an election stunt.

Think about that sentence for a second. The government tries to end a strike. The opposition claims ending the strike is politically motivated. Which means… what? The opposition wants the strike to continue to make the government look bad? Or they want the government to suffer through more worker unrest? Either way, it’s a no-win framing.

The real issue is that Starmer’s government inherited a mess of local disputes and hasn’t found a way to sound like they’re solving them without sounding cynical. When you’re trying to end a strike and people immediately assume it’s theater, you’ve lost control of the narrative. That’s a skills problem, not just a luck problem.

Photo by Andrew Neel / Pexels

The Lib Dems: Can’t Even Keep Their Own House

Ed Davey backing Jane Dodds after the rift is technically good news for coalition stability. But read between the lines: Davey previously said Dodds should “reflect on her position.” Then he campaigned in Wales without her. Now he’s publicly supporting her again.

That’s not confidence. That’s damage control. And it suggests the Lib Dems are worried about looking fractured when they’re supposed to be the steady hand that balances Labour’s radical instincts (or something like that—the actual ideological difference is now basically aesthetic).

Here’s what worries me: if your junior coalition partner is publicly bickering about its own leadership, how much leverage do they have when real negotiations happen? The answer is none. Starmer probably loves watching this play out because it means the Lib Dems can’t credibly threaten to walk over policy disagreements. Why would you blow up your government when your own party can’t decide who’s in charge?

Online Safety, Bereaved Families, and the Real Pressure

Esther Ghey—whose daughter Brianna was murdered in a transphobic killing—says it’s “equally important” that the PM hears from bereaved families as well as tech giants on online safety.

This is not a small point. This is a person who has every right to be angry, and she’s using that anger to push back against the assumption that tech industry voices matter more than families who’ve lost children to online harms. She’s right. And Starmer’s government probably isn’t listening hard enough to people like her compared to how carefully they listen to Meta and TikTok.

My prediction: this will bubble up into a real scandal by autumn if the online safety bill doesn’t include specific provisions that Ghey and other bereaved families are pushing for. The government will have chosen money and Silicon Valley relationships over grief. That’s always bad politics.

King Charles in Washington: The Escape Hatch

And then there’s the beautiful, perfectly timed distraction of King Charles visiting Washington. A state visit! With Congress! Talking about “reconciliation and renewal”!

The timing is genuinely convenient for Starmer. While he’s getting hammered at home, the monarchy is out doing soft power stuff. King Charles gets to look presidential and wise. The press gets distracted by the royal visit (and, awkwardly, by the fact that the White House correspondents’ dinner shooting has cast a shadow over everything). Starmer doesn’t have to answer ten more questions about Mandelson.

But here’s the thing that’s actually interesting: the visit is happening amid “tension over the war in Iran between President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer.” This is real geopolitical friction, and it’s not being discussed because everyone’s watching the royals at a garden party. That’s fine for Starmer in the short term. It’s not fine long-term if Trump and Starmer actually have a strategic disagreement that never gets properly aired out.

Photo by Tara Winstead / Pexels

What’s Actually Breaking Here

I’m genuinely uncertain whether this is a bad week or the start of something worse. Starmer’s government is eight months old. It’s normal for new governments to have rocky weeks. But the pattern here—vetting questions, labor disputes, coalition wobbles, pressure from bereaved families—suggests something more fundamental.

The government promised stability and delivery. Stability means you don’t have Mandelson vetting drama. Delivery means Birmingham’s bins get collected without a months-long strike. Coalition management means Jane Dodds stays on message.

None of that is happening.

My actual take: Starmer is competent enough to survive this week. But he’s not yet proven he can build a government that runs smoothly under pressure. He got elected because people wanted boring and stable. He’s currently delivering chaos with slightly better hair than the previous guy.

What I’m Watching

• The Mandelson inquiry vote outcome (next 2 weeks). Does Starmer hold an inquiry or refuse? Either way tells you something about how nervous he is about this.

• The Birmingham deal terms when they’re actually announced. Specifically: did the workers get what they wanted, or did the council essentially impose a settlement? If it’s the latter, the “election stunt” accusation sticks.

• Whether Davey replaces Dodds before autumn party conference. If she survives that intact, the Lib Dems probably stabilize. If there’s a coup, the coalition gets messy fast.

• Trump-Starmer bilateral statement language from the Washington visit. Watch whether they paper over the Iran disagreement or actually acknowledge it. Papering it over means it festers; acknowledging it means they’re serious about managing real differences.